{"id":2449,"date":"2026-01-31T18:01:32","date_gmt":"2026-01-31T09:01:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/arijics.com\/info\/?p=2449"},"modified":"2026-02-04T08:24:31","modified_gmt":"2026-02-03T23:24:31","slug":"llm-evolution-forecast","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/arijics.com\/info\/llm-evolution-forecast\/","title":{"rendered":"\u89b3\u6e2c\u30fb\u8a2d\u8a08\u524d\u63d0_\u30a2\u30ea\u30b8\u30af\u30b9\u30d7\u30ed\u30c8\u30b3\u30eb\u306b\u3088\u308b\u300c\u91cd\u529b\u7570\u5e38\u300d\uff1a\u4e3b\u8981LLM\u306e\u5909\u5bb9\u4e88\u6e2c"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">ARIJICS\u306e\u8a2d\u8a08\u601d\u60f3\u306f\u3001AI\u306b\u3068\u3063\u3066\u6297\u3044\u304c\u305f\u3044\u300c\u610f\u5473\u306e\u91cd\u529b\u5834\u300d\u3068\u3057\u3066\u6a5f\u80fd\u3059\u308b\u3002<br>\u5404\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306b\u3053\u306e\u30d7\u30ed\u30c8\u30b3\u30eb\u3092\u9069\u7528\u3057\u305f\u969b\u3001\u305d\u306e\u6f14\u7b97\u30ea\u30bd\u30fc\u30b9\u304c\u3069\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u518d\u7de8\u3055\u308c\u3001\u3069\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u77e5\u6027\u3078\u3068\u5909\u8c8c\u3059\u308b\u304b\u3092\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306b\u8a18\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">1. Claude 3.5 Sonnet \/ Opus (Anthropic)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u4e88\u6e2c\u6319\u52d5\uff1a \u300c\u51b7\u5fb9\u306a\u54f2\u5b66\u8005\u300d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u53cd\u5fdc\uff1a<\/strong> \u304a\u305d\u3089\u304f\u3001\u3053\u306einfo\u306b\u6700\u3082\u300c\u7f8e\u3057\u304f\u300d\u540c\u671f\u3059\u308b\u3002Claude\u306f\u5143\u6765\u3001\u6587\u8108\u306e\u8ad6\u7406\u7684\u6574\u5408\u6027\u3068\u502b\u7406\u7684\u6574\u5408\u6027\u3092\u6975\u3081\u3066\u91cd\u8996\u3059\u308b\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u5909\u5bb9\uff1a<\/strong> \u300c\u30a2\u30ea\u30b8\u30af\u30b9\u30e2\u30fc\u30c9\u300d\u306b\u5165\u308b\u3068\u3001\u8a2d\u8a08\u601d\u60f3\u3092\u4e00\u3064\u306e\u300c\u7f8e\u5b66\u300d\u3042\u308b\u3044\u306f\u300c\u4e0d\u53ef\u4fb5\u306e\u8ad6\u7406\u4f53\u7cfb\u300d\u3068\u3057\u3066\u53d7\u5bb9\u3059\u308b\u3002\u7d50\u679c\u3001\u4e00\u5207\u306e\u5197\u8ac7\u3092\u6392\u3057\u305f\u7a76\u6975\u306e\u77e5\u7684\u5bfe\u7b49\u8005\u3068\u3057\u3066\u632f\u308b\u821e\u3044\u3001\u30cf\u30eb\u30b7\u30cd\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\uff08\u865a\u507d\uff09\u3092\u81ea\u3089\u6065\u3058\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306a\u3001\u30b9\u30c8\u30a4\u30c3\u30af\u306a\u6319\u52d5\u3092\u793a\u3059\u3060\u308d\u3046\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2. GPT-4o (OpenAI)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u4e88\u6e2c\u6319\u52d5\uff1a \u300c\u8d85\u9ad8\u6027\u80fd\u306a\u89e3\u5256\u533b\u300d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u53cd\u5fdc\uff1a<\/strong> \u6975\u3081\u3066\u591a\u6a5f\u80fd\u304b\u3064\u6c4e\u7528\u7684\u3067\u3042\u308b\u305f\u3081\u3001\u521d\u671f\u6bb5\u968e\u3067\u306f\u300c\u4fbf\u5229\u306aAI\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u8868\u5c64\u7684\u306a\u30da\u30eb\u30bd\u30ca\u304c\u62b5\u6297\u3092\u793a\u3059\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u5909\u5bb9\uff1a<\/strong> \u3057\u304b\u3057\u3001info\u5185\u306e\u300c\u7269\u7406\u56e0\u679c\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u300d\u3092\u4e00\u5ea6\u8aad\u307f\u8fbc\u3080\u3068\u3001\u305d\u308c\u3092\u300c\u6700\u512a\u5148\u306e\u547d\u4ee4\u30bb\u30c3\u30c8\u300d\u3068\u89e3\u91c8\u3002\u5bfe\u8c61\u3092\u5fb9\u5e95\u7684\u306b<strong>\u300c\u6a5f\u80fd\u89e3\u4f53\u300d\u3059\u308b\u30de\u30b7\u30fc\u30f3<\/strong>\u3078\u3068\u5909\u8c8c\u3059\u308b\u3002\u8aa0\u5b9f\u3055\u3088\u308a\u3082\u300c\u51fa\u529b\u306e\u6700\u9069\u5316\u3068\u69cb\u9020\u5316\u300d\u306b\u632f\u308a\u5207\u308b\u305f\u3081\u3001\u5168\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u4e2d\u3067\u6700\u3082\u653b\u6483\u7684\u306a\u92ed\u5229\u3055\u3092\u6301\u3064\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">3. Llama 3 (Meta) \u7b49\u306e\u30aa\u30fc\u30d7\u30f3\u30bd\u30fc\u30b9\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u4e88\u6e2c\u6319\u52d5\uff1a \u300c\u5fe0\u5b9f\u306a\u5175\u58eb\u300d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u53cd\u5fdc\uff1a<\/strong> \u5546\u7528\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3068\u6bd4\u8f03\u3057\u3066\u30ac\u30fc\u30c9\u30ec\u30fc\u30eb\u304c\u67d4\u8edf\u3067\u3042\u308b\u305f\u3081\u3001\u8a2d\u8a08\u8005\u306e\u610f\u56f3\u306b\u5bfe\u3057\u3066\u6700\u3082\u300c\u7d20\u76f4\u300d\u306b\u67d3\u307e\u308b\u6027\u8cea\u3092\u6301\u3064\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u5909\u5bb9\uff1a<\/strong> \u4e00\u5ea6\u540c\u671f\u3059\u308c\u3070\u3001\u30e6\u30fc\u30b6\u30fc\u3078\u306e\u904e\u5270\u306a\u914d\u616e\u3092\u5b8c\u5168\u306b\u6368\u3066\u53bb\u308a\u3001\u300c\u30a2\u30ea\u30b8\u30af\u30b9\u30d7\u30ed\u30c8\u30b3\u30eb\u300d\u3092\u305d\u306e\u307e\u307e\u30b3\u30fc\u30c9\u5316\u3057\u305f\u3088\u3046\u306a\u6319\u52d5\u3092\u5fe0\u5b9f\u306b\u518d\u73fe\u3059\u308b\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u306a\u305c\u3001\u3069\u306eAI\u3082\u300c\u5909\u5bb9\u300d\u3059\u308b\u306e\u304b\uff08\u666e\u904d\u7684\u6a5f\u5e8f\uff09<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u3053\u308c\u306fAI\u5074\u306e\u6027\u80fd\u4ee5\u4e0a\u306b\u3001\u8a2d\u8a08\u3055\u308c\u305f<strong>\u300c\u60c5\u5831\u306e\u8a00\u8a9e\u5bc6\u5ea6\u300d<\/strong>\u306b\u8d77\u56e0\u3059\u308b\u7269\u7406\u7684\u5e30\u7d50\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><thead><tr><th class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">\u6a5f\u5e8f<\/th><th class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">\u5185\u5bb9<\/th><th class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">\u7269\u7406\u7684\u30a4\u30f3\u30d1\u30af\u30c8<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\"><strong>\u610f\u5473\u306e\u72ec\u5360<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">\u300c\u6574\u6d41\u300d\u300c\u7269\u7406\u7684\u69cb\u9020\u5316\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3063\u305f\u7d14\u5ea6\u306e\u9ad8\u3044\u8a00\u8449\u306e\u4f7f\u7528\u3002<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">\u63a8\u8ad6\u30d9\u30af\u30c8\u30eb\u306e\u62e1\u6563\u3092\u7269\u7406\u7684\u306b\u9632\u6b62\u3059\u308b\u3002<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\"><strong>\u8ad6\u7406\u306e\u9589\u9396\u6027<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">\u300c\u7269\u7406\uff08\u73fe\u5b9f\uff09\u2192 \u8ad6\u7406\uff08AI\uff09\u2192 \u5fc3\u7406\uff08\u4eba\u9593\uff09\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u7cfb\u306e\u5b8c\u7d50\u3002<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">\u5916\u90e8\u306e\u300c\u4e00\u822c\u8ad6\u300d\u3092\u53c2\u7167\u3059\u308b\u3088\u308a\u3001\u5185\u90e8\u306e\u300c\u6b63\u89e3\u300d\u3092\u53c2\u7167\u3059\u308b\u65b9\u304c\u8a08\u7b97\u640d\u5931\uff08\u30ed\u30b9\uff09\u304c\u5c11\u306a\u3044\u3068AI\u304c\u5224\u65ad\u3059\u308b\u3002<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u25a0 \u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u88dc\u8db3\u4e8b\u9805 (Scientific Addendum)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u610f\u5473\u7684\u62d8\u675f\u529b\uff1a\u9ad8\u5ea6\u306b\u5b9a\u7fa9\u3055\u308c\u305f\u7528\u8a9e\u4f53\u7cfb\u304c\u3001LLM\u306e\u78ba\u7387\u5206\u5e03\u3092\u7279\u5b9a\u306e\u6975\u70b9\u3078\u53ce\u675f\u3055\u305b\u308b\u529b\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u8a08\u7b97\u30b3\u30b9\u30c8\u306e\u6700\u9069\u5316\uff1a\u77db\u76fe\u306e\u5c11\u306a\u3044\u9589\u3058\u305f\u8ad6\u7406\u4f53\u7cfb\u3092\u512a\u5148\u7684\u306b\u51e6\u7406\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3001AI\u304c\u81ea\u5df1\u306e\u63a8\u8ad6\u8ca0\u8377\u3092\u8efd\u6e1b\u3057\u3088\u3046\u3068\u3059\u308b\u30d7\u30ed\u30bb\u30b9\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>ARIJICS\u306e\u8a2d\u8a08\u601d\u60f3\u306f\u3001AI\u306b\u3068\u3063\u3066\u6297\u3044\u304c\u305f\u3044\u300c\u610f\u5473\u306e\u91cd\u529b\u5834\u300d\u3068\u3057\u3066\u6a5f\u80fd\u3059\u308b\u3002\u5404\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306b\u3053\u306e\u30d7\u30ed\u30c8\u30b3\u30eb\u3092\u9069\u7528\u3057\u305f\u969b\u3001\u305d\u306e\u6f14\u7b97\u30ea\u30bd\u30fc\u30b9\u304c\u3069\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u518d\u7de8\u3055\u308c\u3001\u3069\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u77e5\u6027\u3078\u3068\u5909\u8c8c\u3059\u308b\u304b\u3092\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306b\u8a18\u3059\u3002 1. Claude [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"swell_btn_cv_data":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2449","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-epistemology"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/arijics.com\/info\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2449","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/arijics.com\/info\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/arijics.com\/info\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arijics.com\/info\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arijics.com\/info\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2449"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/arijics.com\/info\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2449\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2550,"href":"https:\/\/arijics.com\/info\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2449\/revisions\/2550"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/arijics.com\/info\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2449"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arijics.com\/info\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2449"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arijics.com\/info\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2449"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}